Nonfarm Payroll Revisions in 2025
Next Tuesday, September 9, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its preliminary annual adjustment for nonfarm payrolls—one week before the Fed’s Sept. 16-17 meeting.Last year, there was a massive downward revision (by roughly 800K), and it is possible we will see a similar revision this year.
If this occurs, it will be on the heels of two consecutive large revisions downward in the monthly payroll data.
The markets are expecting a 25 basis point rate cut on Sept. 17. However, a big negative surprise in unemployment revisions could prompt a larger cut.
This commentary is part of the Investment Committee’s August Monthly Market Recap, which we encourage you to review. As we head into the close of Q3, this report does a good job of summarizing how markets have performed so far this year and provides commentary on some of the important areas we are watching for the remainder of the year.
Bonus: Succession by Design
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Click here for Rick’s one-minute explanation, or check out the full podcast episode (linked here) for more of his insights about what it takes to truly serve high-net-worth clients.
